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*** LOCAL (Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga.) IMPACTS FROM THE TROPICS: Increasing onshore wind & rough seas/surf through this week.
The Atlantic Basin Overview:
(1) The Caribbean remains an area that will need to be monitored as some gradual tropical development looks likely - a historically a “hot spot” for late season development.
An area of “disturbed weather” - disorganized showers & t’storms - continues over the Central & Western Caribbean. This disturbance will move northeast reaching the Dominican Republic & Haiti by Saturday then continuing northeast. Heavy rain & gusty winds are occurring over Jamaica & will impact Eastern Cuba, Hispaniola & perhaps Puerto Rico by the weekend.
Run to run inter-model continuity & agreement amongst the models remains poor though most of the global models now show at least some kind of development. But the trend has been for a weaker system that continues to move northeast across Central Atlantic through next week.
Still - keep a wary eye on the Caribbean until the low is northeast of the area by late in the weekend.
(2) Non-tropical low pressure over the Northern Gulf of Mexico will continue to move eastward producing heavy rain along the Gulf Coast & across much of Florida. The low will then “hand-off”/redevelop or transfer its energy to another area of low pressure over the far W. Atlantic just east of Florida & near the Western/NW Bahamas. The low may acquire some subtropical or even tropical characteristics while staying offshore as the system moves north/northeast to the east of Florida then eventually northeast & away from the U.S. over the weekend. This low will increase east winds with rough seas/surf for NE Fl./SE Ga. coasts Thu.-Fri. Very heavy rain - 5″+ - will occur across parts of S. Florida & the east coast of Fl. from Cape Canaveral southward with rain amounts for NE Fl. averaging 1-2″(+)... & about a half inch to 1″ for SE Ga.
The upper oceanic heat content (UOHC) [tropical cyclone heat potential/TCHP] across the SW Atlantic, Gulf & Caribbean with plenty of warm water far below the surface in the Caribbean:
Water vapor loop (dark blue/yellow is dry mid & upper level air):
November tropical cyclone origins:
Averages below based on climatology for the Atlantic Basin for November (7 hurricanes so far, 19 tropical storms):
Saharan dust spreads west each year from Africa by the prevailing winds (from east to west over the Atlantic). Dry air - yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that can impede the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna’ be” waves will just wait until they get to the other side of - or away from - the plume then try to develop if other conditions are favorable. In my personal opinion, way too much is made about the presence of Saharan dust & how it relates to tropical cyclones. In any case, the peak of Saharan dust typically is in June & July.
2023 names..... “Vince” is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years). Historic storms are retired [Florence & Michael in ’18... Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20, Ida in ‘21 & Fiona & Ian in ‘22]). In fact, this year’s list of names is rather infamous with “Katrina”, “Rita” & “Wilma” retired from the ‘05 list & “Harvey”, “Irma”,“Maria” & “Nate” from the ‘17 list. The WMO decided - beginning in 2021 - that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened three times - 2005, 2020 & 2021). The naming of tropical cyclones began on a consistent basis in 1953. More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.
Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:
Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):
Deep oceanic heat content over the Gulf, Caribbean & deep tropical Atlantic. The brighter colors are expanding dramatically as we near the peak of the hurricane season.:
Sea surface temp. anomalies:
SE U.S. surface map:
Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:
Surface analysis of the Gulf:
Atlantic Basin wave period forecast for 24, 48, 72 & 96 hours respectively:
Global tropical activity:
Cox Media Group